Election-2009: Sign of Things to Come ?

The picture has cleared and hopefully we are on course to having a strong, stable government at the Centre. As eventually proved I was jumping the gun when I put the UPA's tally at "220 odd" in my last post. They ended up with 261 and now need the support of just 11 members to stake their claim successfully. So much for the "hung house" noise and a "fractured mandate" fear.

* In latest news I learn that the two raging bulls from UP, always at loggerheads in their state, have decided to support the UPA Govt. "unconditionally", of course for secularism's sake. Now if that's not funny I don't know a funnier joke.

The results of Election-2009 has emphasized two very potent emerging realities for beginners:

1. Rahul Gandhi's elevation to the top league of national politics has been formalized. His decision to go alone in UP and Bihar has proved to be a "goldmine" for the Congress at the same time marginalizing the Lalu-Paswan-Mulayam sphere of influence. Failure in meeting adequate numbers in these states would have drawn flak, instead the prince-in-waiting has pulled off a great coup and the former allies are still smarting under it. The Congress after two decades of irrelevance has again become a force to reckon with in these two pivotal states which send no less than 120 members to the Lok Sabha. Though many see this is as his warming up to the top-job in time for 2014 and resent the subsequent throw back to dynastic politics I personally feel Rahul Gandhi should be a good bet at the helm as he has already earned his stripes - working for his constituency(Amethi) for the past 5 years, campaiging extensively for this election, proposing policy reforms within the party. Moreover young people have responded positively to his "youth inclusive" aam admi ka sipahi vision. Bringing the educated, responsive youth who are in tune with present challenges is a sea-change from the genteel gerontocracy we are so used to. If a single youth icon can inspire more like him to join politics that should be viewed as a welcome change than harp on his credentials, lineage and worst of all- his Spanish girlfriend. I can totally understand the foreboding that grips the swadeshi variants who resented a "foreign national" elevated to the PM's post in 2004 but at this moment of time all this is too much wistful thinking and little else. Our better sense must prevail and so should Junior Gandhi's in accepting the HRD or the I & B portfolio. "You won't have a report-card if you never sit for an exam" and managing a ministry for 5 years is his test for the taking.


2. The people have forcefully rejected the Left tactic of political arm-twisting to influence policy decisions at the Centre. They have had enough of their brand of "Zero Responsibility, Maximum Credit" non-participative brand of politics. But that is neither the sole reason nor the most significant one behind the brutal drubbing they were handed out at the hustings this election. For once, pressing local issues merged with a hitherto unseen wave of popular rage pent up for over a decade and erupted to drive them to the margins of political anonymity. In one single sweep Alimuddin Street and all its mandarins in their bubbles of arrogance were stunned to observe that bastion after bastion their posts had been breached and that too by a party it never deemed fit even to be a worthy adversary - the Trinamool Congress. In Bengal, where the sting will hurt for many years in the future, the Communists have faced their worst defeat till date. Land agitation in Singur and Nandigram, Rizwanur Rahman and Tasleema Nasreen cases being bungled all blended to yield the perfect poison for the apparatchiks. Mamata Banerjee became just the vessel for its delivery. Many people are convinced that Banerjee would have stormed Writer's Building had the State Assembly elections coincided with the Lok Sabha polls. Some are of a different opinion. They say they felt the need to vote for change only because they wanted the Communists to reform their attitude from that of unbearable arrogance which stems from assured vote banks and start to perform on the ground. Long has been their vice-like grip on every union in every field of work. Be it teachers, students, professors, workers, bankers, drivers - everyone figures somewhere in their long and distributed chain of dependence. The "organization" is so vast for its content and feared for its reach that practically "the party" runs the show everywhere - in every corridor in every office. People who grew up in such a system took all of it on their way but in the last four years acts of unchecked audacity by some of its leaders have antagonized the masses and the elite alike. From publicly insulting a sitting High Court judge to shameless pandering to a murderous mob of home-grown extremists they had done it all when elections came knocking at the doors. And everyone had their own score to settle by then. In a prolonged vacuum of opposition the TMC provided a mercurial leader who stood for little political sense but a lot of integrity and character. People voted for her in huge numbers but this only gives her a opportunity to perform and prove that she can actually don the Chief Minister's post in two years time. 2011 may not seem so close but it will surely be a very close battle considering the Communists pull up their socks in time. Otherwise history might just play lazy, go ahead and repeat itself.

Meanwhile, the people will be watching. To keep them on their toes.



* other trends might be appended to the post as and when memory surfaces and news emerge.

Con-Front-ed

India goes to vote in less than 24 hours from now and in what promises to be a fascinating exposition of democracy choose who rules the country for the coming five years.

Though the latter part of the above statement might be an oversimplification the average Indian will keep pegging his hopes at seeing a stable government installed at the Centre. Here are some reasons he might get disappointed in the near future:

Each of the UPA, NDA and the Third Front combines fail to reach the magic number of 272 and we get a hung assembly, which in all possibility we will. The following situations might surface :

1. Congress emerges as the single largest party. DMK does well in Tamil Nadu to lend respectability to whatever little remains of the UPA . RJD-LJP-SP perform well enough in the cow-belt to be profitably realigned with the UPA with more bargaining power than before. Sensing the current towards this fledgling front NCP throws in its weight and the UPA is resurrected, dangling cabinet posts for more new friends, willing them to join in. The southern-settlement negotiated with the likes of PMK and MDMK the Congress still seems to be in need of additional support.

Now,

(i) Mr. Karat says "No" and the UPA is looking at weaning away Mayavati or Jayalalitha from the Third Front. The presence of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Karunanidhi in the UPA makes cohabitation an impossible exercise for these two mercurial maidens of legendary whim. In comparison, taking in Deve Gowda might be easy but it will hardly serve the purpose of meeting numbers.

(ii) Mr. Karat says "Yes" and the Left Front reverts back to its "We had to do it to keep the communal forces ( read BJP) out". Considering the projected losses of the Left in West Bengal and Kerala come out to be real, even after their support the UPA will enjoy a very thin majority and be liable to seasonal fluctuations of temper and policy. Add to it the disturbing apparition of Mamata Banerjee and the CPI(M) in the same front and you know Mrs Gandhi's hands are going to be more than full this summer.


2. The BJP emerges as the single largest party and JD(U), Akali Dal does well in Bihar and Punjab respectively. Seizing the opportunity TDP, AIADMK and BJD bolster the NDA and with time more friends emerge from nooks and corners. The Third Front disintegrates and both Sonia Gandhi and Prakash Karat are left sulking in their dens. That leaves the NDA humoring cabinet-berth demands of Jayalalitha on one hand and wooing Mayavati, just in case the wheels wobble mid-way.


3. The Third Front bags 125 odd seats and proves to be uncharacteristically cohesive in the post-election scenario. The Congress having conceded its single largest party status in the House to BJP is left with few options but to support a Third Front Govt. from outside "for the sake of secularism". Mayavati becomes PM with BSP bagging 40 odd seats and the country becomes one huge caste-cauldron in the mould of U.P and Bihar with reservations becoming the top priority in a Dalit-Muslim oriented Pan-India agenda. The Congress looks to pull the plug on the govt. at the first opportunity which presents itself and the cabinet lives precariously, formulating policies for survival rather than progress.



Any fair judge of the situation would recognize the fact that the probability of any of the three major fronts forming a Govt. at the Centre is equal. But one thing is certain considering the mutable nature of political alliances in election season this summer and that is:

" Don't vote for any Front. It might not be there come May."

The Man Who Will Be King

............ and lift US from the dumps.

Barack Hussein Obama is now to take on the mantle of 'The Most Difficult Job' in the world and deliver the goods for the millions who see him as their talismanic messiah, their knight in shining armour. He faces the herculean task of resurrecting the global image of the United States which reached new lows during the war-mongering Bush regime. But before that he needs to put his house in order. That means a bail-out plan for the economy that is unprecedented in history, going by its sheer bulk and consequence.

But if he is half as effective as his oratory suggests he is our man for the job.

And he is already a legend.

"Hurray!" to that "Change".






photo: googleimages

Good Bye or Good Riddance ?

One wonders at the ongoing drama i.e Pakistani politics with the same unalloyed glee that marks a toddler's first visit to the zoo, sometimes peppered with disappointments like watching the wart-riddled monitor die and sometimes marveling at the inspired antics of the resident ape, exhausting its repertoire to draw a few more laughs from the gathered mob. The resignation of President Pervez Musharraf figures somewhere in between.


While it is being hailed in Pakistan as a great victory of her people and a reconfirmation of the masses' recurring belief in civil governance and lasting order its a shock to see journalists in India toe that line blindly. There are headlines in every major newspaper touting this as the epoch-making event that is to shape the future of our neighboring nation in some unprecedented manner. They are speculating the rise of democratic traditions, faith in judiciary and marginalization of the Army's involvement in its public life. I believe the assertions couldn't have been further from truth. A country that has been most miserably swaying between corrupt politicians and military dictators since its inception is liable to break into joyous revelries once in a while when a dictator steps down to make way for another. The fun part this time around is that we don't still know who it will be. And perhaps thats what adds that little zing of anticipation to these celebrations.


The USA has marooned its 'trusted ally' and seems more than ready to 'walk forward' with his arch enemies in the Pakistan Senate. Saudi Arabia, expectedly will again take on the responsibility of being the caretaker of the political dumping ground that it is fast turning into. First Nawaz Sharif, now Musharraf. No wonder the General hopes to come back and rule, soon.
The PPP-PML coalition, having rid themselves of the Greater Evil will now have nothing to do but fight each other. Zardari will play the 'Bilawal-card' sooner or later as will Sharif try to consolidate his gains. The Army will be busy firing from across the LOC, keeping their minds off the civilian hotchpotch for a while and wait for the next able officer in their ranks who can Kargil his way into limelight. The ISI will keep the cauldron simmering in Kashmir and the likes of Al-Qaida, Lashkar-e-Tayyeba and Jaish-e-Mohammad will find the Afghan-Baloch border too hot (courtesy some joint military operations) and hence migrate to the east.

And to think that all this has been precipitated by Benazir Bhutto's assassination. That is common knowledge. Now it waits to be seen if the ramifications become as far reaching as impressing a lasting change in the political landscape of South-east Asia. Or is it asking for too much ?

Once again the world has seen how One Death can change things.
Ask Ashok Todi.