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Wednesday, April 15, 2009


India goes to vote in less than 24 hours from now and in what promises to be a fascinating exposition of democracy choose who rules the country for the coming five years.

Though the latter part of the above statement might be an oversimplification the average Indian will keep pegging his hopes at seeing a stable government installed at the Centre. Here are some reasons he might get disappointed in the near future:

Each of the UPA, NDA and the Third Front combines fail to reach the magic number of 272 and we get a hung assembly, which in all possibility we will. The following situations might surface :

1. Congress emerges as the single largest party. DMK does well in Tamil Nadu to lend respectability to whatever little remains of the UPA . RJD-LJP-SP perform well enough in the cow-belt to be profitably realigned with the UPA with more bargaining power than before. Sensing the current towards this fledgling front NCP throws in its weight and the UPA is resurrected, dangling cabinet posts for more new friends, willing them to join in. The southern-settlement negotiated with the likes of PMK and MDMK the Congress still seems to be in need of additional support.


(i) Mr. Karat says "No" and the UPA is looking at weaning away Mayavati or Jayalalitha from the Third Front. The presence of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Karunanidhi in the UPA makes cohabitation an impossible exercise for these two mercurial maidens of legendary whim. In comparison, taking in Deve Gowda might be easy but it will hardly serve the purpose of meeting numbers.

(ii) Mr. Karat says "Yes" and the Left Front reverts back to its "We had to do it to keep the communal forces ( read BJP) out". Considering the projected losses of the Left in West Bengal and Kerala come out to be real, even after their support the UPA will enjoy a very thin majority and be liable to seasonal fluctuations of temper and policy. Add to it the disturbing apparition of Mamata Banerjee and the CPI(M) in the same front and you know Mrs Gandhi's hands are going to be more than full this summer.

2. The BJP emerges as the single largest party and JD(U), Akali Dal does well in Bihar and Punjab respectively. Seizing the opportunity TDP, AIADMK and BJD bolster the NDA and with time more friends emerge from nooks and corners. The Third Front disintegrates and both Sonia Gandhi and Prakash Karat are left sulking in their dens. That leaves the NDA humoring cabinet-berth demands of Jayalalitha on one hand and wooing Mayavati, just in case the wheels wobble mid-way.

3. The Third Front bags 125 odd seats and proves to be uncharacteristically cohesive in the post-election scenario. The Congress having conceded its single largest party status in the House to BJP is left with few options but to support a Third Front Govt. from outside "for the sake of secularism". Mayavati becomes PM with BSP bagging 40 odd seats and the country becomes one huge caste-cauldron in the mould of U.P and Bihar with reservations becoming the top priority in a Dalit-Muslim oriented Pan-India agenda. The Congress looks to pull the plug on the govt. at the first opportunity which presents itself and the cabinet lives precariously, formulating policies for survival rather than progress.

Any fair judge of the situation would recognize the fact that the probability of any of the three major fronts forming a Govt. at the Centre is equal. But one thing is certain considering the mutable nature of political alliances in election season this summer and that is:

" Don't vote for any Front. It might not be there come May.


FlotsaM said...

This is derogatory term for the states mentioned :P
Anyways, post-election drama would be more fascinating to watch in comparison to what we are witnessing now...
too many players trying to play in the same game!!

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