Con-Front-ed

India goes to vote in less than 24 hours from now and in what promises to be a fascinating exposition of democracy choose who rules the country for the coming five years.

Though the latter part of the above statement might be an oversimplification the average Indian will keep pegging his hopes at seeing a stable government installed at the Centre. Here are some reasons he might get disappointed in the near future:

Each of the UPA, NDA and the Third Front combines fail to reach the magic number of 272 and we get a hung assembly, which in all possibility we will. The following situations might surface :

1. Congress emerges as the single largest party. DMK does well in Tamil Nadu to lend respectability to whatever little remains of the UPA . RJD-LJP-SP perform well enough in the cow-belt to be profitably realigned with the UPA with more bargaining power than before. Sensing the current towards this fledgling front NCP throws in its weight and the UPA is resurrected, dangling cabinet posts for more new friends, willing them to join in. The southern-settlement negotiated with the likes of PMK and MDMK the Congress still seems to be in need of additional support.

Now,

(i) Mr. Karat says "No" and the UPA is looking at weaning away Mayavati or Jayalalitha from the Third Front. The presence of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Karunanidhi in the UPA makes cohabitation an impossible exercise for these two mercurial maidens of legendary whim. In comparison, taking in Deve Gowda might be easy but it will hardly serve the purpose of meeting numbers.

(ii) Mr. Karat says "Yes" and the Left Front reverts back to its "We had to do it to keep the communal forces ( read BJP) out". Considering the projected losses of the Left in West Bengal and Kerala come out to be real, even after their support the UPA will enjoy a very thin majority and be liable to seasonal fluctuations of temper and policy. Add to it the disturbing apparition of Mamata Banerjee and the CPI(M) in the same front and you know Mrs Gandhi's hands are going to be more than full this summer.


2. The BJP emerges as the single largest party and JD(U), Akali Dal does well in Bihar and Punjab respectively. Seizing the opportunity TDP, AIADMK and BJD bolster the NDA and with time more friends emerge from nooks and corners. The Third Front disintegrates and both Sonia Gandhi and Prakash Karat are left sulking in their dens. That leaves the NDA humoring cabinet-berth demands of Jayalalitha on one hand and wooing Mayavati, just in case the wheels wobble mid-way.


3. The Third Front bags 125 odd seats and proves to be uncharacteristically cohesive in the post-election scenario. The Congress having conceded its single largest party status in the House to BJP is left with few options but to support a Third Front Govt. from outside "for the sake of secularism". Mayavati becomes PM with BSP bagging 40 odd seats and the country becomes one huge caste-cauldron in the mould of U.P and Bihar with reservations becoming the top priority in a Dalit-Muslim oriented Pan-India agenda. The Congress looks to pull the plug on the govt. at the first opportunity which presents itself and the cabinet lives precariously, formulating policies for survival rather than progress.



Any fair judge of the situation would recognize the fact that the probability of any of the three major fronts forming a Govt. at the Centre is equal. But one thing is certain considering the mutable nature of political alliances in election season this summer and that is:

" Don't vote for any Front. It might not be there come May."

Late Night Calls

Launching a blistering attack which might leave The Bad P ( i.e. Pramod Muthalik as against the good P i.e. our own Pronob babu) quaking in his dhotis Renuka Chowdhury has questioned the kind of upbringing he might have undergone as a child. Applying Freudian deductions and Jungian principles of psychoanalysis she has successfully come to the conclusion that Muthalik's early childhood was deeply influenced by females who believed in "All hail the male!" rather than the then-dubious-now-ubiquitous slogan of "Why should boys have all the fun?". Still the very little gaps that her theory suffers from she intends to eliminate by arranging a tête-à-tête with the saffron stal-wart's mother.

"We'll have to ask her where he gets his attitude", she says.

We wish her all the luck with the interview.


In other news, a L.K Advani comment has just erupted onto the scene which should bring more cheer to the healing hearts at 7, Race Course Road than the sagging shoulders at 11, Ashok Road.
In his characteristic manner, that of a practiced raconteur, Advani has compared Narendra Modi to Atal Bihari Vajpayee. As if the old man was not suffering enough already, Advani had to compare the great statesman to someone who is not even a whimpering apology for Atalji's political acumen, stature, charisma and presence. And to be reminded that both of them made for the Krishna-Sudama of Indian politics till a few years back. Some lasting ties of friendship there, Mr. Advani! Some glowing tributes! Jai ho!

Has political expediency got the better of a respected leader like him or has the corporate coterie finally had its way, one wonders. The investments, both domestic and foreign, which are pouring into Gujarat cannot hide the hideous past of hate and divisive politics that thrived under the garb of "good governance". If Mr. Advani is still calling the shots from the helm he needs to keep track of the past and chalk maps for the future keeping in mind the larger picture rather than playing to the Hindutva gallery. A Vibrant Gujarat under Modi is as much a palpable reality as was Uttam Pradesh under Mulayam Singh Yadav and the day Modi is put in charge of the nation would indeed be a sad day for our democracy.

- For some things are better not forgotten and some people better not compared.

Terror's Happy Hunting Ground

We, bloggers, write mostly when the dust has settled and the blood has dried on the sleeves. 

The news-channels go into their habitual mode of manic over-drive to televise "breaking news" of blood being  spilled and flesh being ripped "while they actually happen".

Our leaders call for "restraint" in "such times of crisis".

Police officials promise "prompt action" and "return to order".

Conflicting claims owning responsibility for the strikes surface.

And we rue the sorry state of our country while warming the sofas of our bedaubed drawing-rooms, letting out that occasional sigh of resigned helplessness over a cup of luke-warm tea before moving onto  some other channel with brighter things on offer. 

Days pass and we forget.

And that is precisely the most terrible curse that an overpopulated nation like ours face

 -  The Curse of Collective Forgetfulness. And the value of human life becomes gradually more trivialised. 

While Mumbai turns into a veritable battlefield and people all over the nation are left wondering "where next?"  a grotesque spectacle of terrorism unfolds before our very eyes.

No more RDX, no more detonations from a distance. Their war has now decidedly come down to "hand to hand combat". But, how can "terror" gain visibility if only the security forces are engaged. How can it strike fear and further its "noble cause" if the corpses don't pile up on the streets. No act of terror is complete without few innocents getting slaughtered, and so we have the count pegged at 100 and till reports last came in they were still counting. This time the casualties have nothing in common between them. Some were inside plush hotels, some on roads earning their daily wages, some in taxis and some waiting on railway platforms. The purveyors of death have made their disregard for social strata apparent with their bloody statement. 

" No class. No mercy. "

And we have taken note.

As NSG commandos storm their posts, bringing them down one by one, and defense analysts join the political bandwagon in dissecting their 'modus operandi' and 'objectives', it is time that we, as a nation wake up to the realization that its about time that our leaders put "petty politics" behind them to avenge this resounding slap on the face of our continued policy of tolerance. It does not matter if "they" were Hindus or Muslims, Deccan Mujahideens or Kashmiri Fidayeens; it does not matter if there was the usual "foreign hand" behind these attacks or something entirely indigenously orchestrated. Fire can only be fought with fire and there are no two ways about it.

Too many lives have been lost already and someone must sound the bugle now. If not, popular outrage might soon consume the last vestiges of whatever is considered 'civil' in our society and a protracted reign of violent vigilantism might soon ensue. Unlike the political and military posturing in the wake of the '2001 Parliament Attack' concrete action is the call of the hour. An Advani or a Gandhi visiting the blast-sites when the muzzles have all gone cold is not good enough now. If they want to send a message to the millions that they need not panic in their homes, that must show in their work, not words. It is needless to say that every Indian city now awaits its turn in the terror turn-table with bated breath, that every ordinary citizen now stations himself in a crowded market-place relying more on faith than the "IB information" that is always over-looked before the blasts and highlighted only after they occur unhindered. I admit that it is very convenient to play the blame-game sitting in the comfort of one's study, reading news-portals and venting righteous ire but these are only cultured reflections of the emotions of an exasperated majority, who, if given a chance, would put it with much more vehemence and scorn. 

It will be inappropriate right now to speculate on the possible political stances that might emerge in the coming days, ones which might already be underway in the corridors of power, but any more "politicising of terror" at the expense of innocent lives and we will have a "bigger, graver situation" on our hands. Soon.

Then, mere 'storming the gates' might not be of much help.

links: rediff.com

Strata-game!

With the official withdrawal of support by the Left to the UPA Govt. at the Center the over all political topography of our national politics seems to have altered for the time being. I say 'time being' because of the "No Rupture is permanent" comment by the CPI's A.B Bardhan within a day of the Left pulling the plug on the Govt. To the average onlooker it might seem to be a daft remark betraying political opportunism for the future but to the seasoned follower of the The Great Indian Circus which goes by the name of 'national politics' in these parts this comment is a gem of a political profundity.


Not only does the comment hint at future alliances with the 'secular' Congress to thwart the coronation of 'communal' powers ( a stated Left policy) but it also is a sort of mischievous wink to the Congress High Command, hinting at the possibilities that might pose themselves post the 2009 General Elections. Moreover, my take (albeit at the risk of being dubbed a 'conspiracy theorist' of the vilest order) on the matter is that its another Left stratagem.


Let me explain first by enumerating the predicaments facing the Left before they decided to pull-out from the Govt.

1. Surging inflation, an impending oil crisis and increasing interest rates makes for a bad report-card after 4 years even if you are not in charge of the Govt. The Govt. runs on your borrowed support, dammit! Do something to show the people you are their 'Messiah in Reds'. Oppose every move. Stonewall every decision by the Govt. which poses short-term difficulties for the people but has long-term benefits. Public memory is short, remember ? In India its shortest.


2. Nuke Deal ? Yes, that sounds like the ideal issue for pulling the rug from beneath the Congress. Moreover, our GS doesn't like the Yankees much. Why couldn't they have penned something with the Chinese and called it the '一 - 二 - 三 Deal' rather than the 1-2-3 rubbish. It would have been much easier on our rigid ideological stance, you see.


3. Hello! Ain't we supposed to fight the Congress tooth and nail in every state where we have a foothold in the coming General Elections. 4 Years of sharing the bed is enough. Now is the time to abort the unwanted child. Its bad for business, you see, this getting seen honey-mooning for too long with your stated rivals. Its parting-time now!


4. But this won't be so simple. Pulling down the Govt would mean elections within 6 months and the party isn't even ready. The cadres aren't ready. Had a heavy drubbing in the last Panchayats in Bengal and now this. If this is any sign of things we will not fare too well in the next Lok Sabha. 59 might well come down to 30. Forget about the fanciful 'Third Alternative' we won't even be asked for outside-support. Gosh! No issue-based oppositions! No arm-twisting! No Co-ordination Committees! Nightmare! Nightmare!



Then there was LIGHT!

The Left decides to withdraw support and seek immediate trust-vote to prove the majority of the Govt on the floor of the House. I reckon this is why:

1. Withdrawing support makes us look like the only party left with any ideology. We will call ourselves 'pro-poor, pro-people, pro-farmer, pro-worker' again, the BPO segment notwithstanding of course. They are the 'New Bourgeoisie'. Gives us the moral upper-hand in a country where UP politicians are soon to rule the roost. Everyone knows what that means. The Congress will soon ( again) know what being SP-ied mean! They will come scurrying back to us in a post-election scenario. Even they know the expediency of choosing the 'Lesser Evil' out of two. Sounds fascinating!


2. Karat seems a tad too staunch for hard bargaining. Surjeet was more of a man-for-all-seasons. Doesn't understand the compulsions of electoral politics. No wonder Vir Sanghvi calls him 'the man who never won a Municipal Election'. Still, we will have to do with him. He's better than that Biman Bose.


3. Safe distance from the Congress now that we have withdrawn support. We can easily campaign against their 'anti-people' policies now. We were never a part of the decision-making apparatus. Were we ? However with the amount of time left for the present US Congress before the Presidential Elections ,the Nuke Deal will meet a dead-end soon. The UPA-Left Co-ordination Committee has served its purpose. What a great move was that! Was it Yechury's or Pranab's idea? This Committee? God! We should leave Jangipur to him again. He's a great man.


4. This is our common favourite. The Stratagem! Even Bimal Gurung's Gorkhaland number plates idea can't beat it. We are after all talking 'national' here. Here goes:

We ask for an immediate trust-vote motion. We vote against the Govt, against the 1-2-3 deal, but remember, not with the BJP. They just happen to be on our side, incidentally. We don't try too hard to rally too many parties, independents or splinter-groups in voting against the Govt. They remain blissfully absent or abstain on the day of the vote. The UPA Govt. proves its majority, continues at the Centre for the coming 6 months. No 'No-Confidence Motion' can be sought within that time-frame. So, we get time to dissociate from the Congress, protest in Delhi, stage dharnas and hartaals all in the interest of the common people while the Govt. continues. What's the use of crying 'anti-incumbency' when they are not at the helm. We will catch them in power these last 6 months. Sounds great!

Moreover, these 6 months our cadres can use to pile up whatever is necessary to win seats in the coming elections. Congress or no Congress, clout in the House is numbers at the end of the day. The rise and fall of Deve Gowda, I.K Gujral and the Third Front taught us that lesson all right.

Now, say all of you, isn't it a real good move ? This bringing down...errrr.........pretending to bring down the house....? eh ?


cartoon: courtesy: boloji.com

A Haunting Mistake

The Arushi murder case has not ceased rolling out one surprise after another but somehow it now seems to have been a classic case of misinformation and a terrible example of administrative goof-up. The narco-analysis makes for shocking revelations. [link here]

The fallouts are notable.

Henceforth, the Noida Police will find it very hard not to trigger raised eyebrows whenever it comes out with a sensational theory behind a crime. It had single handedly misguided the public opinion and generated rhetoric and slanderous gossip that would put even Page-3 journalists to shame. To have cast aspersions on the character of a 14 year old who had fallen victim to a horrible murder was outright shameful and that to have come from someone of the post of an Inspector General of Police. Not surprisingly social commentators and ordinary people alike were guilty of expressing disgust and reproach as part of the knee-jerk reaction at the aftermath of such a visibly gruesome tragedy. Many, including me as can be found from the contents of a previous post, were part guilty of being too gullible in believing the 'illicit affair' angle to the murder. My sincerest apologies to the departed. Thanks to the electronic media, preposterous as it might have seemed a few years back but the marriage of crime and media generated sensationalism today necessitates training in media management of public servants. A similar blunder, that of jumping the gun cost the Kolkata Commissioner of Police his job in the Rizwanur Rahman case. The Govt. must take note of the amount of weight that the words of a senior official carry and if any modicum of respect and dignity is to be still salvaged in favour of these hallowed institutions it will be through inculcation of 'responsible public conduct' in these officials.

The lure of the flashbulbs should not blind one to the rigors of his duty.

Going the Modi Way

As the run-up to the Gujarat election treats the avid onlooker to myriad antics that politics in India so regularly has to offer, the perceptive cannot help but voice concern over the recent incidents.

The raging debate over the incendiary speech that Narendra Modi gave the other day at an election rally in Gujarat has made it to the headlines the nation over. The political motive to polarize the electorate on the basis of faith is blatantly naked and compellingly unacceptable. There can never be enough justification for a Chief Minister of a state baying for the blood of ‘terrorists’, the allusion being too transparent to be deciphered with any difficulty. That the speech was a fitting reply to the Congress President’s ‘merchant of death’ remark wouldn’t even fool a schoolboy in Surat. But then, this isn’t about political affiliations (I assure that I have none. I only side with the ‘relative right’, though I admit that it is becoming increasingly difficult to find even marginal sanity in the present political spectrum). It is about reviewing the direction in which Gujarat is headed. It is about posing questions about the political expediency of a communal riot. It is about asking the average Gujarati what he/she wants. And for how long.

One can understand the atmosphere of insecurity and fear in which the previous Assembly election in Gujarat was held. It was within a year from the riots that had devastated the state and the air was thick with tension like never before. It was apparent from the landslide victory of the BJP that the communally charged propaganda had reaped rich dividends. But, four years is a lot of time. Things have moved, if not at a brisk pace, and living in the past is a fruitless exercise that no sensible Gujarati would approve of. The ‘healing touch’ has not been provided to the Muslims in Gujarat and understandably so. In an age of political opportunism where mass-sentiments are stoked for bagging electoral benefits, if the continued vilification of an 11% minority can churn out victory after victory in elections let it be so. No pangs of morality (whoever said that of politicians!). No bouts of compunction.

Milking religious sentiments for staying in power suffers from ‘the laws of diminishing returns’ though, and it might manifest its most unpleasant facets to the saffron brigade not before long. The BJP might win this election in Gujarat on the ‘Religion’ poll-plank but it might have few takers at the national level, where functional coalitions have become an accepted reality. The NDA- already a shrinking pool of regional parties might collapse if the shutters of the ‘Hindutva’ laboratory are not pulled down fast in Gujarat. Fully aware of its political compulsions, the BJP keeps pursuing its old trusted ‘ideals’ out of utter desperation and strategic vacuum. Its emphasis on a Modi-centric campaign, disregarding dissension within the ranks only attests to that helplessness. But, thinking apolitically, I wonder how the Gandhinagar textile merchant would vote this time around. Whom the Saurasthra farmer will settle for. Which way the Surat-diamond merchants would sway.

All these people who do a service to the Commerce of this nation every single day by being devoted to their enterprise; will they realize how they are being made to applaud the Emperor’s clothes of ‘Muslim extremism’ for too long. Will they wake up to the fact that for one Muslim terrorist there is also a thousand hard-working people of his creed who share nothing with the former except their prayer timings? Will they realize that it is only ignorance, poverty and misinformation that barricades the members of the ‘other faith’ and impedes their path to a better life?

A sensitive revision of the situation is the need of the hour in Gujarat.

It is the responsibility of every Gujarati to issue a timely reminder to all political parties that they cannot be misled into believing in ghosts of the past forever. Being the harbingers of progress that they are, one can bank on their sound judgment.

In matters of trade.

In matters of life.

Photo: Courtesy: Yahoo.com

Alexander Kuzmin should be invited immediately to address the joint parliamentary session of India. His diktat prohibiting bureaucrats from relaying hapless tax-payers from one desk to another must be made into an abiding example in this country.

Though, the inevitability of his lecture having little effect on our mantris and babus remain a roaring reality still, an honest attempt is worth the fruit of reform (! ?? ).

If (ever) and when it happens the entire picture of Govt. offices would change drastically, pulling words like ‘efficiency’ and ‘productivity’ out of the eternal freezer of oblivion it has been consigned to in this country.

It is even hard to imagine how our sarkari - offices would look like (and feel like) to the occasional jaywalker implored by necessity to submit to the mood-swings of any of these reluctant relics of officialdom and to be swept off his feet to find prompt attention followed by a prompter redressal. How would that be like? A shock-therapist wouldn’t be a bad person to have in company on such an adventure. A case where too much of a shock has to be undone with medical help.

Long, winding queues of harried people with a sleepy-sloth at the cash-counter would be a thing of past. A squirrel nimbleness would take on hundreds in a flash, thus pre-empting the existence of long queues and unending waits.

Champion fly-swatter clerks would do a better job in escorting inquirers from one dept. to another rather than engaging in a match of table-tennis with their disdainful wave of a hand, directing clueless ‘first-timers’ into a vicious cycle across adjoining tables.

Fault-finding tendencies would fall sharply in them while perusing forms and applications.

Good behavior would be as ubiquitous in these places as flies in a sweet-shop.

“ Kal aiyye”, would be banned in Kuzminish style and vigour injected as soon as all Govt. employees are inoculated against diseases like ‘late-coming’ and uninformed ‘casual-leaves’.

That’s too much of a fantasy now!

But what’s the harm in a little harmless dream percolating from across the Caspian.

The Land of Volga and vodka.

The land of Lenin.

Our Comrades listening kya???

Left Lurching in the Dark .......................

As the coming week awaits a check of authenticity of the Left threat to rock the boat, the placating powers of the Congress top brass to keep the house in order and the longevity of our Prime Minister’s valor in the face of a political hot-spot the aam janta remains as confounded as ever.

Throughout the previous week I have been an avid witness to numerous articles and television debates as to how the hallowed 1-2-3 Agreement would mitigate our power problems, how it is absolutely safe for us to co-operate with the US and how our sovereignty remains fiercely guarded through the various clauses in the pact.

Simple logic thus demands to know of the Leftist headmasters in New Delhi as to what calamity they foresee in the wake of furthering the deal. What terrible blasphemy awaits the nation, its internal security and its independent foreign policy? The Left seems obsessed with Iran and the ultimate dark force that the US embodies. It’s even a child’s guess that India cannot afford to annoy Iran owing to its own power requirements (the Iran-Pakistan-India Oil pipeline) and hence it will always look to avoid direct confrontation on Iran’s nuclear issue. So a head-on collision with Iran goes out of the window right away. Next, the Left was well aware of the ramifications of the nuclear deal eons before its clauses were being formulated and finalized. Its timing of venting protest in such a circumstance is thus dubious and self-contradictory. It clearly indicates that hard-ball isn’t being played with the nation’s interests reigning supreme in the minds of the politburo mandarins. There is something else which is fuelling such a sudden fire of concern and issue-based opposition.

These are anybody’s guess.

The General Elections are imminent on the horizon. The Left needs to distance itself from a party at this juncture with whom it is to engage in fierce ballot-battles not so far away in the future. People must know how the Left has played a perfect regulatory organ in checking the excesses of the Govt. on every issue concerning national security, the nuclear deal being the prime target.

What better time to enjoy the obvious fruits of wielding control without sharing the burden of power. Idle criticism never hurt the critic. Remember?

For long the hardliners in the party have been sidelined or silenced owing to the emergence of a new breed of forward looking Left leaders (read Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee & Co.) more pragmatic and progressive. Now that old-school Karat is at the helm the draconian overlords are again raising their heads with a vengeance. Hence, a totally anti-Govt. stance. Forget issue based support. If the Govt. says yes, stall it. If it says no, install it.

The common thread of irresponsible maneuvering that runs throughout the Left history must see a prompt demise. Otherwise, if the Left pulls the rug off the Govt.’s feet and the country is pushed into another ill-timed election they will be held solely responsible for inviting instability at a time when the country is savoring its share of sunshine. It will be better that they continue their tirade against the Govt. on more pressing internal issues and not succumb to the lure of visibility in the political arena just for the sake of it. Their firm opposition on issues-close-home such as EPF rates and oil prices are welcome and will pre-empt detractors from labeling their continuous contentions as mere political posturing. A structured Left represents a sizeable political base and thus is to be taken seriously as a force to reckon with in the ‘Great Indian Political Spectrum’. But, giving in to hackneyed obduracy and clichéd confrontations with the Govt. will only sully its image.

Let logic reign supreme.