Jumping the Gun

The IPL can sit back and enjoy another show now. One much more gripping than itself

- The Great Indian Poll Results.

While trends in the first hour suggest disappointment for Lauh Purush Advani my heart goes out to 'the man who could not be PM'. Overshadowed by the more senior statesman in Vajpayee his career high point will now remain being the Deputy PM when in office and Leader of Opposition when out of it. For his dedication's sake I hoped he would be at helm this one time. But alas! Voters always have a different plan and how some live to rue it.

On the other hand the results which give 220 odd seats to UPA in terms of present leads will encourage Congress to woo new allies to take them past the 272 mark. Celebrations are already underway at 10 Janpath according to reports. It is easier to bargain from a position of strength and the smaller parties will now feel the heat of bargaining season. Though most of them stand to gain substantially yet repeated parleys might force them to tone down the demands pitch. What will be interesting to watch now is how and who joins in to make for the rest of the requisite 52. Will it be the big three from the cow-belt known for their selective reverence for Madam? Will it be a impaired Left who will "hold the hand" in happiness? Or will it be Nitish-'The Suitable Boy from Bihar'-Kumar who will secure his state's "special" status by offering support to the "outstretched hand"?

The picture will become clearer within an hour or two but whatever be the outcome the majority will heave a sigh of relief for a fractured mandate would have made the nation limp for five uncomfortable years. We will take anything but that with glee.

Con-Front-ed

India goes to vote in less than 24 hours from now and in what promises to be a fascinating exposition of democracy choose who rules the country for the coming five years.

Though the latter part of the above statement might be an oversimplification the average Indian will keep pegging his hopes at seeing a stable government installed at the Centre. Here are some reasons he might get disappointed in the near future:

Each of the UPA, NDA and the Third Front combines fail to reach the magic number of 272 and we get a hung assembly, which in all possibility we will. The following situations might surface :

1. Congress emerges as the single largest party. DMK does well in Tamil Nadu to lend respectability to whatever little remains of the UPA . RJD-LJP-SP perform well enough in the cow-belt to be profitably realigned with the UPA with more bargaining power than before. Sensing the current towards this fledgling front NCP throws in its weight and the UPA is resurrected, dangling cabinet posts for more new friends, willing them to join in. The southern-settlement negotiated with the likes of PMK and MDMK the Congress still seems to be in need of additional support.

Now,

(i) Mr. Karat says "No" and the UPA is looking at weaning away Mayavati or Jayalalitha from the Third Front. The presence of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Karunanidhi in the UPA makes cohabitation an impossible exercise for these two mercurial maidens of legendary whim. In comparison, taking in Deve Gowda might be easy but it will hardly serve the purpose of meeting numbers.

(ii) Mr. Karat says "Yes" and the Left Front reverts back to its "We had to do it to keep the communal forces ( read BJP) out". Considering the projected losses of the Left in West Bengal and Kerala come out to be real, even after their support the UPA will enjoy a very thin majority and be liable to seasonal fluctuations of temper and policy. Add to it the disturbing apparition of Mamata Banerjee and the CPI(M) in the same front and you know Mrs Gandhi's hands are going to be more than full this summer.


2. The BJP emerges as the single largest party and JD(U), Akali Dal does well in Bihar and Punjab respectively. Seizing the opportunity TDP, AIADMK and BJD bolster the NDA and with time more friends emerge from nooks and corners. The Third Front disintegrates and both Sonia Gandhi and Prakash Karat are left sulking in their dens. That leaves the NDA humoring cabinet-berth demands of Jayalalitha on one hand and wooing Mayavati, just in case the wheels wobble mid-way.


3. The Third Front bags 125 odd seats and proves to be uncharacteristically cohesive in the post-election scenario. The Congress having conceded its single largest party status in the House to BJP is left with few options but to support a Third Front Govt. from outside "for the sake of secularism". Mayavati becomes PM with BSP bagging 40 odd seats and the country becomes one huge caste-cauldron in the mould of U.P and Bihar with reservations becoming the top priority in a Dalit-Muslim oriented Pan-India agenda. The Congress looks to pull the plug on the govt. at the first opportunity which presents itself and the cabinet lives precariously, formulating policies for survival rather than progress.



Any fair judge of the situation would recognize the fact that the probability of any of the three major fronts forming a Govt. at the Centre is equal. But one thing is certain considering the mutable nature of political alliances in election season this summer and that is:

" Don't vote for any Front. It might not be there come May."

Time is Running Out.................

Without even bringing one's self to deconstruct Mamata Banerjee's career graph in politics one will surely acknowledge that the basic traits that have defined her over the years have been her vehement anti-CPI(M) stance, populist appeal, sympathy for the suffering on one hand, with political vacillation, lack of vision and complete absence of policy gracing the other.


She has had her share of followers and political space, having the Union Railway Ministry to initiate the reform mantra being the high-point of it, but, today she needs to introspect deeply to salvage pride for herself and spare West Bengal the ignominy of being branded a
- 'Investor's Grave'.


Singur is a lose-lose situation for her now. Only she has to realise it.

Even if the Tatas pack their bags, lick their wounds, count their losses and go off to Karnataka in search of a favorable climate what have the unwilling farmers, the champion of whose rights Didi has modelled herself into, stand to gain ?

I reckon, "Nothing!"

The Land Acquisition Act forbids re-allocation of acquired land to its former owners. The State Govt. surely isn't going to amend an act so as to accommodate the political/moral victory of its opponents. To let the unwilling farmers have what they lost to the Nano will need Didi to come to power in the next Assembly Elections ( which I don't need to say seems ' improbable' to stay on the safer side). How realistic does that sound ?

Also having refused the compensation-cheques for their land the first time around and Didi thwarting their opportunity of grabbing onto the renegotiated compensation (which was a much better deal than the previous offer) the unwilling lot will soon find difficulty in making their ends meet. No wonder chinks have started appearing in their ranks.

Now is a good time to grab the maximum offered amount and have the Nano meet its deadline, rolling out of Singur. Serious ramifications, both politico-economic and otherwise can then be averted. Both for the Left Front and the Trinamool.

The Front will mobilise its publicity machinery and bludgeon Didi's fiery rhetoric to a whimper. She will cry herself hoarse on injustice being meted out and yet nothing will reach the people. The Left is too good at that. It will quietly count its losses, brain-storm, strategise and hand her a electoral debacle she will find hard to balance with both her hands.


Didi might not sense it right now but, the stigma of having driven a monumental opportunity for the state will haunt her in the future like nothing else. She will effectively alienate the 'upwardly mobile' middle class and garner few votes from the farmer-front torn between old and new loyalties. If the Singur plant is closed down it might well send the Agnikanya ( fire-woman) to 'cool it a little' in the unforgiving anonymity of political wilderness come the next elections.
It is now that she must decide if pride may well take its place before the eventual fall comes snapping at its heels.



photos: gettyimages.com

Strata-game!

With the official withdrawal of support by the Left to the UPA Govt. at the Center the over all political topography of our national politics seems to have altered for the time being. I say 'time being' because of the "No Rupture is permanent" comment by the CPI's A.B Bardhan within a day of the Left pulling the plug on the Govt. To the average onlooker it might seem to be a daft remark betraying political opportunism for the future but to the seasoned follower of the The Great Indian Circus which goes by the name of 'national politics' in these parts this comment is a gem of a political profundity.


Not only does the comment hint at future alliances with the 'secular' Congress to thwart the coronation of 'communal' powers ( a stated Left policy) but it also is a sort of mischievous wink to the Congress High Command, hinting at the possibilities that might pose themselves post the 2009 General Elections. Moreover, my take (albeit at the risk of being dubbed a 'conspiracy theorist' of the vilest order) on the matter is that its another Left stratagem.


Let me explain first by enumerating the predicaments facing the Left before they decided to pull-out from the Govt.

1. Surging inflation, an impending oil crisis and increasing interest rates makes for a bad report-card after 4 years even if you are not in charge of the Govt. The Govt. runs on your borrowed support, dammit! Do something to show the people you are their 'Messiah in Reds'. Oppose every move. Stonewall every decision by the Govt. which poses short-term difficulties for the people but has long-term benefits. Public memory is short, remember ? In India its shortest.


2. Nuke Deal ? Yes, that sounds like the ideal issue for pulling the rug from beneath the Congress. Moreover, our GS doesn't like the Yankees much. Why couldn't they have penned something with the Chinese and called it the '一 - 二 - 三 Deal' rather than the 1-2-3 rubbish. It would have been much easier on our rigid ideological stance, you see.


3. Hello! Ain't we supposed to fight the Congress tooth and nail in every state where we have a foothold in the coming General Elections. 4 Years of sharing the bed is enough. Now is the time to abort the unwanted child. Its bad for business, you see, this getting seen honey-mooning for too long with your stated rivals. Its parting-time now!


4. But this won't be so simple. Pulling down the Govt would mean elections within 6 months and the party isn't even ready. The cadres aren't ready. Had a heavy drubbing in the last Panchayats in Bengal and now this. If this is any sign of things we will not fare too well in the next Lok Sabha. 59 might well come down to 30. Forget about the fanciful 'Third Alternative' we won't even be asked for outside-support. Gosh! No issue-based oppositions! No arm-twisting! No Co-ordination Committees! Nightmare! Nightmare!



Then there was LIGHT!

The Left decides to withdraw support and seek immediate trust-vote to prove the majority of the Govt on the floor of the House. I reckon this is why:

1. Withdrawing support makes us look like the only party left with any ideology. We will call ourselves 'pro-poor, pro-people, pro-farmer, pro-worker' again, the BPO segment notwithstanding of course. They are the 'New Bourgeoisie'. Gives us the moral upper-hand in a country where UP politicians are soon to rule the roost. Everyone knows what that means. The Congress will soon ( again) know what being SP-ied mean! They will come scurrying back to us in a post-election scenario. Even they know the expediency of choosing the 'Lesser Evil' out of two. Sounds fascinating!


2. Karat seems a tad too staunch for hard bargaining. Surjeet was more of a man-for-all-seasons. Doesn't understand the compulsions of electoral politics. No wonder Vir Sanghvi calls him 'the man who never won a Municipal Election'. Still, we will have to do with him. He's better than that Biman Bose.


3. Safe distance from the Congress now that we have withdrawn support. We can easily campaign against their 'anti-people' policies now. We were never a part of the decision-making apparatus. Were we ? However with the amount of time left for the present US Congress before the Presidential Elections ,the Nuke Deal will meet a dead-end soon. The UPA-Left Co-ordination Committee has served its purpose. What a great move was that! Was it Yechury's or Pranab's idea? This Committee? God! We should leave Jangipur to him again. He's a great man.


4. This is our common favourite. The Stratagem! Even Bimal Gurung's Gorkhaland number plates idea can't beat it. We are after all talking 'national' here. Here goes:

We ask for an immediate trust-vote motion. We vote against the Govt, against the 1-2-3 deal, but remember, not with the BJP. They just happen to be on our side, incidentally. We don't try too hard to rally too many parties, independents or splinter-groups in voting against the Govt. They remain blissfully absent or abstain on the day of the vote. The UPA Govt. proves its majority, continues at the Centre for the coming 6 months. No 'No-Confidence Motion' can be sought within that time-frame. So, we get time to dissociate from the Congress, protest in Delhi, stage dharnas and hartaals all in the interest of the common people while the Govt. continues. What's the use of crying 'anti-incumbency' when they are not at the helm. We will catch them in power these last 6 months. Sounds great!

Moreover, these 6 months our cadres can use to pile up whatever is necessary to win seats in the coming elections. Congress or no Congress, clout in the House is numbers at the end of the day. The rise and fall of Deve Gowda, I.K Gujral and the Third Front taught us that lesson all right.

Now, say all of you, isn't it a real good move ? This bringing down...errrr.........pretending to bring down the house....? eh ?


cartoon: courtesy: boloji.com