Con-Front-ed

India goes to vote in less than 24 hours from now and in what promises to be a fascinating exposition of democracy choose who rules the country for the coming five years.

Though the latter part of the above statement might be an oversimplification the average Indian will keep pegging his hopes at seeing a stable government installed at the Centre. Here are some reasons he might get disappointed in the near future:

Each of the UPA, NDA and the Third Front combines fail to reach the magic number of 272 and we get a hung assembly, which in all possibility we will. The following situations might surface :

1. Congress emerges as the single largest party. DMK does well in Tamil Nadu to lend respectability to whatever little remains of the UPA . RJD-LJP-SP perform well enough in the cow-belt to be profitably realigned with the UPA with more bargaining power than before. Sensing the current towards this fledgling front NCP throws in its weight and the UPA is resurrected, dangling cabinet posts for more new friends, willing them to join in. The southern-settlement negotiated with the likes of PMK and MDMK the Congress still seems to be in need of additional support.

Now,

(i) Mr. Karat says "No" and the UPA is looking at weaning away Mayavati or Jayalalitha from the Third Front. The presence of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Karunanidhi in the UPA makes cohabitation an impossible exercise for these two mercurial maidens of legendary whim. In comparison, taking in Deve Gowda might be easy but it will hardly serve the purpose of meeting numbers.

(ii) Mr. Karat says "Yes" and the Left Front reverts back to its "We had to do it to keep the communal forces ( read BJP) out". Considering the projected losses of the Left in West Bengal and Kerala come out to be real, even after their support the UPA will enjoy a very thin majority and be liable to seasonal fluctuations of temper and policy. Add to it the disturbing apparition of Mamata Banerjee and the CPI(M) in the same front and you know Mrs Gandhi's hands are going to be more than full this summer.


2. The BJP emerges as the single largest party and JD(U), Akali Dal does well in Bihar and Punjab respectively. Seizing the opportunity TDP, AIADMK and BJD bolster the NDA and with time more friends emerge from nooks and corners. The Third Front disintegrates and both Sonia Gandhi and Prakash Karat are left sulking in their dens. That leaves the NDA humoring cabinet-berth demands of Jayalalitha on one hand and wooing Mayavati, just in case the wheels wobble mid-way.


3. The Third Front bags 125 odd seats and proves to be uncharacteristically cohesive in the post-election scenario. The Congress having conceded its single largest party status in the House to BJP is left with few options but to support a Third Front Govt. from outside "for the sake of secularism". Mayavati becomes PM with BSP bagging 40 odd seats and the country becomes one huge caste-cauldron in the mould of U.P and Bihar with reservations becoming the top priority in a Dalit-Muslim oriented Pan-India agenda. The Congress looks to pull the plug on the govt. at the first opportunity which presents itself and the cabinet lives precariously, formulating policies for survival rather than progress.



Any fair judge of the situation would recognize the fact that the probability of any of the three major fronts forming a Govt. at the Centre is equal. But one thing is certain considering the mutable nature of political alliances in election season this summer and that is:

" Don't vote for any Front. It might not be there come May."

Oye! It's Dryday!

After clamping down on "Western Evils" like Valentine's Day and 'necking in public' [link] the ire of our self-appointed moral guardians has shifted to something which can be, at its euphemistic best, called a fledgling social rot - Women who love their pint. [video link]

If the MNS, Bajrang Dal, RSS, VHP and Shiv Sena were not enough already there has emerged from nowhere a group of Right-Wing (flightless) moralists called Ram Sena, hell bent on reforming our society for us, their way. What is most disconcerting is the support, tacit or otherwise, that these hooligans are garnering from ministers holding public office. Karnataka CM B.S Yediyurappa and Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot who represent two of our nation's largest political parties have expressed their disapproval of 'the pub culture' gaining ground in this country. Public outrage and an active media has entailed that ever-invisible tug from their respective high commands in New Delhi and they have more or less disambiguated their previous statements, smoothening the edges to give it all a liberal yet concerned look.
Union Health Minister, Anmubani Ramadoss has chipped in with his comments,

"It is not our culture. If it goes this way, I don't think India will progress". [link]

Though it may strike as startling as to how women pubbing can affect the nations progress we hope the Union Minister has some logical explanation for his sermon.

History shows that any recession is marked by an increase in alcohol consumption in that economy. India is no exception. With newspapers ringing in bad news every morning regarding the employment figures around the world plummeting to new lows what can but a commoner, or say a software engineer do? A moment of thought for the Satyam employee and another for the recruited fresher biding his time in seclusion, waiting for that elusive DoJ ( 'Date of Joining' for the uninitiated).
The positives of spirit-induced-forgetfulness -
1. A restless youth kept reigned in the confines of a pub, voluntarily.
2. The exponential growth of the liquor industry.
3. A happy Vijay Mallya - meaning more colorful calendars.
4. More time to reflect upon the futility of material pursuits and hence renunciation.
5. A profusion of Devdases, born of diverse reasons - not necessarily Paros & Chandramukhis. - Better material for Bhansali and Co. to build their films on. Realistic ones at that.
6. A spirited nation looking at a better tomorrow. Sloshed.

So we look forward to a pubbing.. errr... throbbing nation.


P.S - About women's rights and their pursuit of pegs - I will write another day. Surely.
Till then, Hic!

Post 26/11

The

The nation is in a state of mourning.

The shock-waves that stunned the country for 62 excruciating hours are now thawing into tearful farewells and heartrending wails, making us all aware, with every passing minute, of the terrible times we are living in and the juvenile sense of security we take to our beds every night.

Like in any great crisis, this one too has had its heroes – people who couldn’t care less about their own lives while saving others’. Some of them are being consigned to the flames as I write. Yet, before the fire in their pyres are out there will be legitimate queries from various quarters questioning the longevity of our outrage, the durability of this ire. And it is my personal belief that these people are not entirely wrong in suspecting our ability as a nation, as a polity and as a people to redress with a vengeance when wronged. History shows that we have always been a nation of the “Chalta hain” sluggards when it comes to prompt thinking and prompter action.

We bypass what is difficult; we overlook what is inconvenient.

The Sunday Hindustan Times had Vir Sanghvi in his Counterpoint column noting:

“Consider the US. Nobody blamed George Bush for 9/11. And for all his faults he was able to ensure that there would be no terrorist attack for the next eight years. Or think of England. The country was shocked by the 7/7 bombings. But politicians assured people that there would be no repeat and indeed, there’s been nothing since. Think of Indonesia. The Bali bombing has not been followed by any terrorist attack on that scale.

I can think of only three countries where terrorism reigns unchecked: Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.”

Just think of the other two countries in the same bracket and you will get the picture. Over the years we have become a generous recipient of terrorism exported by our neighbors (Pakistan being our ‘Most Favored Nation’ in trade is a valid excuse, maybe), an endless sink for all the toxic spawned in ‘their’ backyards and our tirelessness in this department still doesn’t seem to be remotely disturbed. If we are playing our “war of attrition” card here, I doubt if we are winning, in any possible way.

No one denies that given a chance our politicians would never tire of milking the terror cow dry. Be it terror of any “genre” – Hindu, Muslim, separatist, revolutionary and they cannot wait to throw their hats in. Add to this scene few well-timed elections and you get the entire circus running full-steam, not ahead by an inch but in circles.

The Media also plays its part well in the greater scheme of things. Some news channels, in their rush to grab the TRPs, did not even pay heed to a Home Ministry advisory while televising the Mumbai Siege “LIVE”. Perhaps their intuition had told them that the minister himself would need advisories on post-retirement pension schemes soon. But they ended up spreading the terror for the terrorists in their wake and that didn’t help the cause in anyway. Talking of media personalities, it is better if I don’t write at length my recent disillusionment regarding some of them. People who are supposed to have transformed the news-watching habits of the entire nation by their “fire-brand, no-nonsense brand of journalism” were seen thrusting mikes at the faces of dazed victims grappling with their new found lives after a horrid ordeal. And all that for “How do you feel?” .Stray bullets come at a premium too, it seems. All the respect which I had for their sensitivity to human trauma and their courage to fight for lost causes had instantly vanished.

“ Give a big man a great job and see how small he can be ” – I remember to have read somewhere.

The Big Question then is - If TERRORISM could ever have a perceivable end any time in the foreseeable future?

If “yes”, How?

A Federal Agency to counter terror can only be effective if it is kept isolated from the ever evolving political dynamics in our country or else it will end up getting mired in filing scams and disproportionate assets – an abiding legacy of our ministers. Also, in the first place, the installation of such an agency would require amendment of the Constitution which enlists Law and Order as a State responsibility. If this agency is to focus all its resources in handling terrorist activities it would need much teeth and meddling in its affairs would only negate the initial enthusiasm and rarify its real purpose. Tackling this new brand of urban terrorism will need extensive intelligence networking and enforcement of stricter laws. A few people at the top should be made accountable for the actions of the Agency.

The promise that this much-touted Agency holds, even in its days of inception, is immense and so will be the ignominy if it fails. But, we would want ‘the powers that be’ to do anything to try and avoid another 26^th November as we have just had.

Links" rediff.com, hindustantimes.com

Strata-game!

With the official withdrawal of support by the Left to the UPA Govt. at the Center the over all political topography of our national politics seems to have altered for the time being. I say 'time being' because of the "No Rupture is permanent" comment by the CPI's A.B Bardhan within a day of the Left pulling the plug on the Govt. To the average onlooker it might seem to be a daft remark betraying political opportunism for the future but to the seasoned follower of the The Great Indian Circus which goes by the name of 'national politics' in these parts this comment is a gem of a political profundity.


Not only does the comment hint at future alliances with the 'secular' Congress to thwart the coronation of 'communal' powers ( a stated Left policy) but it also is a sort of mischievous wink to the Congress High Command, hinting at the possibilities that might pose themselves post the 2009 General Elections. Moreover, my take (albeit at the risk of being dubbed a 'conspiracy theorist' of the vilest order) on the matter is that its another Left stratagem.


Let me explain first by enumerating the predicaments facing the Left before they decided to pull-out from the Govt.

1. Surging inflation, an impending oil crisis and increasing interest rates makes for a bad report-card after 4 years even if you are not in charge of the Govt. The Govt. runs on your borrowed support, dammit! Do something to show the people you are their 'Messiah in Reds'. Oppose every move. Stonewall every decision by the Govt. which poses short-term difficulties for the people but has long-term benefits. Public memory is short, remember ? In India its shortest.


2. Nuke Deal ? Yes, that sounds like the ideal issue for pulling the rug from beneath the Congress. Moreover, our GS doesn't like the Yankees much. Why couldn't they have penned something with the Chinese and called it the '一 - 二 - 三 Deal' rather than the 1-2-3 rubbish. It would have been much easier on our rigid ideological stance, you see.


3. Hello! Ain't we supposed to fight the Congress tooth and nail in every state where we have a foothold in the coming General Elections. 4 Years of sharing the bed is enough. Now is the time to abort the unwanted child. Its bad for business, you see, this getting seen honey-mooning for too long with your stated rivals. Its parting-time now!


4. But this won't be so simple. Pulling down the Govt would mean elections within 6 months and the party isn't even ready. The cadres aren't ready. Had a heavy drubbing in the last Panchayats in Bengal and now this. If this is any sign of things we will not fare too well in the next Lok Sabha. 59 might well come down to 30. Forget about the fanciful 'Third Alternative' we won't even be asked for outside-support. Gosh! No issue-based oppositions! No arm-twisting! No Co-ordination Committees! Nightmare! Nightmare!



Then there was LIGHT!

The Left decides to withdraw support and seek immediate trust-vote to prove the majority of the Govt on the floor of the House. I reckon this is why:

1. Withdrawing support makes us look like the only party left with any ideology. We will call ourselves 'pro-poor, pro-people, pro-farmer, pro-worker' again, the BPO segment notwithstanding of course. They are the 'New Bourgeoisie'. Gives us the moral upper-hand in a country where UP politicians are soon to rule the roost. Everyone knows what that means. The Congress will soon ( again) know what being SP-ied mean! They will come scurrying back to us in a post-election scenario. Even they know the expediency of choosing the 'Lesser Evil' out of two. Sounds fascinating!


2. Karat seems a tad too staunch for hard bargaining. Surjeet was more of a man-for-all-seasons. Doesn't understand the compulsions of electoral politics. No wonder Vir Sanghvi calls him 'the man who never won a Municipal Election'. Still, we will have to do with him. He's better than that Biman Bose.


3. Safe distance from the Congress now that we have withdrawn support. We can easily campaign against their 'anti-people' policies now. We were never a part of the decision-making apparatus. Were we ? However with the amount of time left for the present US Congress before the Presidential Elections ,the Nuke Deal will meet a dead-end soon. The UPA-Left Co-ordination Committee has served its purpose. What a great move was that! Was it Yechury's or Pranab's idea? This Committee? God! We should leave Jangipur to him again. He's a great man.


4. This is our common favourite. The Stratagem! Even Bimal Gurung's Gorkhaland number plates idea can't beat it. We are after all talking 'national' here. Here goes:

We ask for an immediate trust-vote motion. We vote against the Govt, against the 1-2-3 deal, but remember, not with the BJP. They just happen to be on our side, incidentally. We don't try too hard to rally too many parties, independents or splinter-groups in voting against the Govt. They remain blissfully absent or abstain on the day of the vote. The UPA Govt. proves its majority, continues at the Centre for the coming 6 months. No 'No-Confidence Motion' can be sought within that time-frame. So, we get time to dissociate from the Congress, protest in Delhi, stage dharnas and hartaals all in the interest of the common people while the Govt. continues. What's the use of crying 'anti-incumbency' when they are not at the helm. We will catch them in power these last 6 months. Sounds great!

Moreover, these 6 months our cadres can use to pile up whatever is necessary to win seats in the coming elections. Congress or no Congress, clout in the House is numbers at the end of the day. The rise and fall of Deve Gowda, I.K Gujral and the Third Front taught us that lesson all right.

Now, say all of you, isn't it a real good move ? This bringing down...errrr.........pretending to bring down the house....? eh ?


cartoon: courtesy: boloji.com

Oil Turmoil Hits India

With oil prices set to rise by 5 Rupees per litre from today we are in for another round of passionate hand-wringing and cries of exasperation from the general public. The signs are already there. The fireworks will promptly ensue. Political parties from across every perceivable political divide will join their hands in protesting this grotesque injustice. "How will the poorer sections survive? How will the middle-class fare? " will be their moot-points. The Left will stage street protests in Delhi lead by the likes of Mr & Mrs Karat in tow with the Boses and Bhattacharjees from Bengal. A single LPG cylinder costing 20 Rupees more will make them froth at their mouths with righteous anger and hurt at having had to support such a worthless government at the Centre for so long. But then, what could they have done otherwise. Support the 'communal forces' to form a Govt. ? Never!


The moderates will dub it as the proverbial 'unfortunate' and 'anti-poor' policy. The Congress will be quaking at their knees. With 12 consecutive defeats in State elections the nation over it is in a political coma, in serious need of a quick resuscitation it hopes it will find in Rajasthan( Gujjar uprising) and Madhya Pradesh ( anti-incumbency) in the coming elections. A vehement opposition at this crucial juncture, less than a year away from the General Elections, which might decisively turn the tide against them is singularly terrifying a proposition. And that has considerably cushioned the rod for the aam aadmi this time around. Otherwise a 10 Rupee hike per litre of petrol and a 50 rupees more for a LPG cylinder would have been the biting reality tomorrow morning. With the nationalized Oil Corporations running into huge losses by accommodating for heavy subsidies this hike had become inevitable for some time.


Crisis, be it food or oil, has become a global phenomena. Nothing can insulate the Indian masses from its effects and its better if we realize this reality fast and brace ourselves for some tough times ahead.The remedy to this global malaise is in planning ahead. The much touted vision of 'Energy Security' seems to have taken a permanent backseat with the Left having effectively steamrolled the Indo-US Nuclear Deal for the sake of hanging onto its logic defying 'Anti-America' stand. The Iran-Pakistan-India Oil pipeline also seems mired in diplomatic tangles with the pendulous nature of Indo-Pak relations. If our political visionaries ( now don't you start counting, you may not even end up with one) do not show resolve in tackling the situation and make a strategy for the future India's juggernaut might come to a most inglorious halt. And all in want of oil.

Sample this. China has already secured oil-mining rights throughout Africa, leaving hardly any profitable pocket for India to nudge, push or fit in. The race for oil is but over in Africa and its all China written across that continent. That leaves India to explore its possibilities in the Sakhalin belt and other Central Asian countries, which given its snailish pace of proceedings might never be substantiated. By all means, the energy situation for India seems grim in the future as oil-starvation will effectively peg back its growth rate to the pre-1990 4% figure, rendering the manufacturing industry vulnerable and infirm. So, assessing the situation in the light of the impending global crisis this hike is but a mild tremor. The real shocks might follow soon.

Until then, all hail Subhash Chakrabarty and hope that our bus fares don't go through the roof.

Adios.

"Oasis of Peace". Who ?

Though this is coming excruciatingly late from me still, I feel this had to come sooner or later.

Constraints of time cannot be forever for a vagabond, and constraints of indifference to a shrieking social issue have still to manifest their symptoms in me.

So, here’s my take on The Rizwanur Episode.

Largely perceived as the murder of Justice, Love and Secularism in this “Oasis of Peace” the death of Rizwanur Rehman has surely triggered a rare outcry for justice and retribution in and around Kolkata. It is more than heartening to note that the classes and masses have for once joined hands in condemning the incidents leading to the death of the young graphics teacher amidst the most suspicious of circumstances. Add to it the involvement of top brass police officers gracing Lalbazar cabins running for cover at the outset of inquiry and what you get is a perfect recipe for a gripping thriller. The dilatory tactics being employed by the Govt. in hope of pressure diffusing by the time Pujas end are too apparent to be missed.

Reprieve won’t be that easy this time.

I have firm believe in the endurance of zeal in the numerous protestors thronging streets and candle-light vigils in memory of the hapless victim and I am sure their guard wouldn’t be lowered, their pitch wouldn’t get subdued with time. It is imperative of the Govt. to affirm its subscription to the hallowed ideals of Justice and Fairness and there won’t be a better time than this. The more it tries to protect the wrong-doers in the garb of unhurried enquiries the more it would contribute in tarnishing its own image. The Chief Minister, who not before too long was being cited as an apostle of Progress is no longer the innocent with unbloodied hands. He should take this opportunity as one last chance to repair his image and reinstate faith in his credentials.

As an involved follower of the course of events I noted certain highlights in this episode.

1. The influence of Orkut in building public opinion and garnering support is fast becoming a ‘force to reckon with’. It is undeniable that the fact that Rizwanur was a popular teacher amongst his students and their sharp response (via Orkut) to his unnatural and untimely death did help immensely in mobilizing large-scale support within hours.

2. Alimuddin Street isn’t too warmly united on this issue.

3. The eroding Muslim vote base has to be addressed. Some damage control measures are to be taken. Krishnendu Das might well be the scapegoat. The I.P.S are a “untouchable lot”, they say.

4. The Chief Minister is sure to loose some ground if he doesn’t manage to salvage some pride and restore order in his house by the earliest. Nadigram followed by Rizwanur is not so much of a soporific. Is it ?

5. There’s a cricketing angle to it too. But, Thank God that it concerns the administrators – ‘The loathed lot.’ Our cricketers could do with less publicity than this.

6. It isn’t getting too Cozi for Ashok Todi. A C.B.I enquiry would mean some “andar ki baat...” spilling out into the open.

7. One must think thrice before marrying a rich merchant’s daughter who isn’t too warm to the idea of securing a ‘so-so’ Jamai.

8. The matter is sub judice. I might get jailed for posting this. This late.

photo: courtesy: NDTV