With the official withdrawal of support by the Left to the UPA Govt. at the Center the over all political topography of our national politics seems to have altered for the time being. I say 'time being' because of the "No Rupture is permanent" comment by the CPI's A.B Bardhan within a day of the Left pulling the plug on the Govt. To the average onlooker it might seem to be a daft remark betraying political opportunism for the future but to the seasoned follower of the The Great Indian Circus which goes by the name of 'national politics' in these parts this comment is a gem of a political profundity.
Not only does the comment hint at future alliances with the 'secular' Congress to thwart the coronation of 'communal' powers ( a stated Left policy) but it also is a sort of mischievous wink to the Congress High Command, hinting at the possibilities that might pose themselves post the 2009 General Elections. Moreover, my take (albeit at the risk of being dubbed a 'conspiracy theorist' of the vilest order) on the matter is that its another Left stratagem.
Let me explain first by enumerating the predicaments facing the Left before they decided to pull-out from the Govt.
1. Surging inflation, an impending oil crisis and increasing interest rates makes for a bad report-card after 4 years even if you are not in charge of the Govt. The Govt. runs on your borrowed support, dammit! Do something to show the people you are their 'Messiah in Reds'. Oppose every move. Stonewall every decision by the Govt. which poses short-term difficulties for the people but has long-term benefits. Public memory is short, remember ? In India its shortest.
2. Nuke Deal ? Yes, that sounds like the ideal issue for pulling the rug from beneath the Congress. Moreover, our GS doesn't like the Yankees much. Why couldn't they have penned something with the Chinese and called it the '一 - 二 - 三 Deal' rather than the 1-2-3 rubbish. It would have been much easier on our rigid ideological stance, you see.
3. Hello! Ain't we supposed to fight the Congress tooth and nail in every state where we have a foothold in the coming General Elections. 4 Years of sharing the bed is enough. Now is the time to abort the unwanted child. Its bad for business, you see, this getting seen honey-mooning for too long with your stated rivals. Its parting-time now!
4. But this won't be so simple. Pulling down the Govt would mean elections within 6 months and the party isn't even ready. The cadres aren't ready. Had a heavy drubbing in the last Panchayats in Bengal and now this. If this is any sign of things we will not fare too well in the next Lok Sabha. 59 might well come down to 30. Forget about the fanciful 'Third Alternative' we won't even be asked for outside-support. Gosh! No issue-based oppositions! No arm-twisting! No Co-ordination Committees! Nightmare! Nightmare!
Then there was LIGHT!
The Left decides to withdraw support and seek immediate trust-vote to prove the majority of the Govt on the floor of the House. I reckon this is why:
1. Withdrawing support makes us look like the only party left with any ideology. We will call ourselves 'pro-poor, pro-people, pro-farmer, pro-worker' again, the BPO segment notwithstanding of course. They are the 'New Bourgeoisie'. Gives us the moral upper-hand in a country where UP politicians are soon to rule the roost. Everyone knows what that means. The Congress will soon ( again) know what being SP-ied mean! They will come scurrying back to us in a post-election scenario. Even they know the expediency of choosing the 'Lesser Evil' out of two. Sounds fascinating!
2. Karat seems a tad too staunch for hard bargaining. Surjeet was more of a man-for-all-seasons. Doesn't understand the compulsions of electoral politics. No wonder Vir Sanghvi calls him 'the man who never won a Municipal Election'. Still, we will have to do with him. He's better than that Biman Bose.
3. Safe distance from the Congress now that we have withdrawn support. We can easily campaign against their 'anti-people' policies now. We were never a part of the decision-making apparatus. Were we ? However with the amount of time left for the present US Congress before the Presidential Elections ,the Nuke Deal will meet a dead-end soon. The UPA-Left Co-ordination Committee has served its purpose. What a great move was that! Was it Yechury's or Pranab's idea? This Committee? God! We should leave Jangipur to him again. He's a great man.
4. This is our common favourite. The Stratagem! Even Bimal Gurung's Gorkhaland number plates idea can't beat it. We are after all talking 'national' here. Here goes:
We ask for an immediate trust-vote motion. We vote against the Govt, against the 1-2-3 deal, but remember, not with the BJP. They just happen to be on our side, incidentally. We don't try too hard to rally too many parties, independents or splinter-groups in voting against the Govt. They remain blissfully absent or abstain on the day of the vote. The UPA Govt. proves its majority, continues at the Centre for the coming 6 months. No 'No-Confidence Motion' can be sought within that time-frame. So, we get time to dissociate from the Congress, protest in Delhi, stage dharnas and hartaals all in the interest of the common people while the Govt. continues. What's the use of crying 'anti-incumbency' when they are not at the helm. We will catch them in power these last 6 months. Sounds great!
Moreover, these 6 months our cadres can use to pile up whatever is necessary to win seats in the coming elections. Congress or no Congress, clout in the House is numbers at the end of the day. The rise and fall of Deve Gowda, I.K Gujral and the Third Front taught us that lesson all right.
Now, say all of you, isn't it a real good move ? This bringing down...errrr.........pretending to bring down the house....? eh ?
cartoon: courtesy: boloji.com
